The world population number reached 8 billion on November 15, 2022. In the year 2037 that number will have grown to 9 billion. That means the world population will grow with 1.000.000.000 people in only 15 years.
People want children.
The world population is growing at a rate of 1% per year, which is equivalent to 66 million people in 2022. This rate has been decreasing since its peak in 1968. The estimated growth rate for 2050 is 0.5%, which is half the current rate. In 1987, the annual world population growth was over 90 million, but it is estimated to be around 45 million in 2050.
People want children.
Initially, the urge to have children was based on survival and preserving the family bloodline, with the added benefit of having someone to care for you in old age. Nowadays there are numerous other reasons for having children and they are all valid. The global population doubled in just 39 years from 1960 to 1999, from 3 to 6 billion. However, you can say that world population growth was never an item of public interest, so nobody paid attention.
According to worldwide projections, the annual growth of the world population will eventually decline to under 0.1%, resulting in a stable population. However, there is disagreement on when this will happen and what the ultimate highest world population record number will be. There is consensus that the World Population Number will reach 10 billion in 2057. There is no scientific consensus on how humanity will enter the next century, and projections depend on various scenarios and perspectives. However, all agree that current actions will make a difference.
The aim of Too Many, Too Much is to start a movement. Not a political movement, because in politics there is no time for reflection. The WPLM is addressing the issue of 10 billion people in 2057 to ordinary people using their gut feeling and common sense.
Families can have different numbers of children, or even no children. The average number of children per woman in the world is currently 2.3, which is called the Total Fertility Rate. In the pre-modern era, the fertility rate was higher due to high mortality rates. However, with improved healthcare and living standards, mortality rates decreased, and fertility rates started to decline. In 1972, the fertility rate was 5.0 children per woman, but it has since declined faster to the current rate of 2.3 children per woman. Fertility rate is a key factor in the decline of world population growth.
The connection between a woman and her child is unique, as the woman carries the child in her body from conception to birth. That is why a woman is better equipped to answer questions regarding the future of her children.
Despite the global average fertility rate being 2.3 children per woman, there are substantial differences in fertility rates among countries. New scientific research has revealed that fertility first falls with development, but then rises again when development reaches a very high level. This is contrary to the common opinion that fertility rate only declines with development.
People want children.
Children born today will live to the end of this century, and there is only disagreement in long term projections of their future. Here lies the core of the paradox, the dilemma we are facing. One thing matters: what we do today is of paramount importance to the quality of our children’s future. The fertility rate is a key factor in the decline of world population growth. To stabilize the world population, it is necessary to reach a replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. There is only disagreement when this replacement rate will be reached and what the world population number will be at its maximum.
7000
Million
population in 2100 - Low variant
10000
Million
population in 2100 - Medium variant
15000
Million
population in 2100 - High variant
The United Nations has projected world population growth until 2100 based on different fertility rates. The Medium Variant predicts a world population of just over 10 billion in 2100 with a fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman. The High Variant predicts just under 15 billion people with a fertility rate of 2.5 children per woman, while the Low Variant predicts 7 billion people with a fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman. The illustrative Constant Fertility scenario projects over 20 billion people in 2100 if the fertility rate remains the same in every country. These different projections highlight the importance of fertility rate in determining future world population growth or decline.
People want children.
The goal of Too Many, Too Much is not to tell you to behave against your nature, to not have children. The goal is to ask you to think about the size of your family and the number of children you are going to have. The number of children per woman will be the key factor for the quality of future for children born today and for the long-term future of humankind as a species.
The world population is concentrated in a few countries, with China having the largest population followed by India, which is expected to overtake China soon. The United States is a distant third, followed by Indonesia and Pakistan. When looking at population distribution by continent, Asia and Africa have a combined population that is 3.4 times bigger than the rest of the world. This factor is expected to continue growing.
Governments aim to maintain their national population within a safe range for various reasons, including ensuring a stable financial structure, planning future investments in healthcare, infrastructure, housing, and industry, and calculating future tax revenues. Population targets are common, and policies may be implemented to encourage or discourage certain groups from reproducing. Such regulations have been implemented throughout history.
According to projections, the combined population of Asia and Africa is expected to be four times larger than the rest of the planet by the end of the century. In 2050, the world population is estimated to be 9.71 billion, with Asia having a population of 5.29 billion and Africa estimated at 2.49 billion, totalling 7.78 billion. The remaining population is estimated to be 1.93 billion, and for the first time, the European population is projected to decline.
According to the United Nations Population Division, the world population is estimated to be 10.35 billion in 2100, with Asia’s population declining to 4.67 billion and Africa’s population continuing to grow to 3.92 billion. The combined population of Asia and Africa is projected to be 8.68 billion, while the rest of the world is estimated to be 1.67 billion. North and South America are also experiencing a decline in population, while Europe’s population is projected to decrease by 157 million from its current estimate. In 2100, 8 out of 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa.
Humankind is incapable to not grow. As population numbers will decline in various regions; as estimated in Europe, North and South America; governments will take action to address the economic and demographic implications, such as decreasing tax revenues and aging population. Countries like China, Singapore and Japan have already introduced policies to encourage higher fertility rates by promoting larger families. This is why politics will not work, this is why the World Population Limitation Movement is addressed to you.
This concludes part 1, the original plan: research in world population growth. In conclusion, the most important thing scientists agree on is this: what we do today can make a difference. If you, dear reader, understand this now: that will mean my intention is accomplished. It’s up to you now. It will be the future of your children and grandchildren.
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